You'd think that after 20 years of writing about computers, we'd have learned a thing or two
Raphael Needleman
With this issue, BYTE celebrates its twentieth anniversary. Like most of you, we've been studying the microcomputer business for a long time. I like to think that in 20 years we've learned a lot -- not just about computers and the computer market, but about how new markets grow. And most important, how events in the various technology markets can be used as lessons for other industries.
Computers don't cost jobs.
If you look at specific markets or companies (say, for example, Smith Corona's typewriter business), you will of course see the elimination of jobs and even entire markets. But the computer industry as a whole is growing rapidly and is a key engine behind job g
rowth in several service industries, such as banking and medicine.
Thanks to advancing technology, many industries are changing more quickly than they ever have. With change comes disruption, competition, and the decline of companies and people who don't track the change. But change also carries opportunity and growth for those who can adapt to it.
Preemptive marketing works.
Just ask Adam Osborne, who preannounced his Osborne Model II portable computer while still sitting on a warehouse of Model 1s. Anticipation of the Model II killed what was left of the Model I's sales. In the process, it killed Osborne Computer itself. Of course, giving the market a whiff of vapor can work to your great advantage--witness the hypefest that preceded the Windows 95 launch. Auto manufacturers have been preannouncing products and vague "concept cars" for years. Sure, it's slimy. And it can bite you if you manage it wrong. But that's the way marketing works today.
Technology doesn't always fix
problems.
Boys will have their toys, but sometimes they have been known to get carried away. Witness Denver International Airport, which is otherwise known as the world's largest bug. The problem: Airline baggage handling is slow, expensive, and error-prone. Denver's solution: A computerized baggage system that avoids the evidence of misrouted luggage by ripping it to shreds. Hint: If the process is fouled up, a computer won't fix it--it will just automate the problems.
The paperless office?
Yeah, right. Paper grows on trees--and also in your office. There's a tale that when NASA used to receive satellites from the manufacturer, they came on two trucks: one for the space vehicle and one for the documentation. Now, we have made great strides in indexing and document retrieval in the last 20 years, but people still want their books--and their magazines, thank goodness. Electronic distribution is an additional channel for information, but it cannot replace all other media.
There
's always one more bug.
There is no such thing as a bug-free computer product. It's the unfortunate nature of the beast. Therefore, if you're going to release a product into the market, you should know ahead of time what you will do if the worst happens. Of course, this applies to all industries, not just technology. Intel didn't realize this until too late, and confidence in its Pentium took a serious dive for a long while. But when Intuit found out about the bug in its TurboTax program, it followed the L.L. Bean model: The company took the product back and fixed it. People still trust Intuit. Be honest with your customers.
Support your customer.
Thanks in no small measure to the golden era of free telephone support for computer products (now gone, alas), a whole generation of consumers now expects companies to offer telephone help-desk support. From refrigerators to mutual funds, if a product can possibly confuse somebody, it will. But if confused customers can call you, in their darkes
t hour of need, and you can rescue them, you'll have built a stronger relationship--and improved your chances for future business.
It's a Webbed world.
You say you can't possibly think of another feature to add to your widget? Put Web functionality in it. Everybody else is, after all. Warning: This may not work for the home appliance industry. But then, you never know.
Raphael Needleman, Editor in Chief, (
rafe@well.com
)
Old Enough to Know Better
