On the "Killer App"
"A `killer app' that takes over all of computerdom no longer exists, because computerdom is so big that even a large thing like the Web is still such a small pieceI think a killer application [today] is usually defined as something that takes a new configuration of hardware and makes it viable."
--Dan Bricklin, VisiCalc inventor
On Mobile Computing
"Mobile wireless computers are like mobile pipeless bathrooms--portapotties. They will be common on vehicles, construction sites, and rock concerts. My advice is to wire up your home and stay there. Use information highways to let you stay home with your kids, not to make you more of a road warrior."
--Bob Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet
On Programming
"I've never been too good at predicting the future, but I can tell you what I wish would happen. I want software tools to become more literate and readable by people other than the programmer . . . I hope there will be a Pulitzer prize for the best writing of a computer programThere may be new tools to help nonprofessional programmers write programs, but programming is never going to be simple."
--Donald Knuth, TeX inventor
On Voice Recognition
"I believe that voice recognition will become more important in the future but only for trivial functions. The problem is that spoken English is terribly imprecise, even when used by experts . . . I cannot imagine a more efficient interface for complicated tasks than a combination of mouse pointing and a standard keyboard."
--Thomas Kurtz, BASIC inventor
On Wishful Thinking
Q: If you could get in the time machine and go back and change one thing that's happened in the history of com
puting, what would it be? A: "I would have written a BASIC interpreter for the first PCs."
--Bob Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet
On PDAs
In five years, PDAs will become a useful product because of the rapid increase in processing power, their ability to handle cross-platform data, and the communications infrastructure that will be in place.
--David Nagel, Apple
On "Intelligent Agents"
"The computer as intelligent agent is not in our future; we haven't even achieved a Congress of intelligent agents after 200 years of trying. Instead, the computer for the twenty-first century will be the computer that stays out of your way, gets out of your desktop and into your clothing, connects you with people instead of with itself."
--Mark Weiser, Xerox PARC
On Computer Interfaces
"The new things will be highly related to communication . . . Anthropomorphic-type appearances on-screen that are appealing, engag
ing."
--Bill Gates, Microsoft
"We'll continue to see some ill-fated attempts, like Microsoft's Bob and the Japanese Friend 2000 project, to animate the computer."
--Mark Weiser, Xerox PARC
"The PC operating systems are not going to be innovative ground for user interfaces. If you look at a lot of the CD-ROM products, they don't use the PC's user interface, they just make up their own. So maybe that's going to be some of the ground for the advances."
--Steven Jobs, Next
On Schools
"I think we are going to expand a lot beginning with the schools that are more up on things, more the leaders. The keyboarding classes are going to [become] classes that really teach about the guts of the computer . . . I think [we'll see] topics in schools teaching . . . how to use it . . . [and] how to get from one place to another."
--Steve Wozniak, inventor, lots of stuff
Predictions for the Year 2000
