Which programs will be the VisiCalcs and WordStars of the next five years? We've seen the future . . .
1) COLLABORATION SOFTWARE
Lotus Notes is proving the value of shared text bases, and E-mail-based alternatives like Collabra Share and Open Mind are also bringing the benefits of group conferencing to new users. As smart agents, natural-language processing, and perhaps expert systems are brought to bear on electronic collaboration, PC-based interaction may begin to rival TV in its impact on society.
2) TEXT SEARCH AND RETRIEVAL
Finding the kernels of information embedded in the chaos o
f data is a problem that's only going to get bigger, as knowledge bases on CD-ROM and networks continue to grow. The basic pattern matching and Boolean slicing now in place will continue to do most of the work. But look for AI techniques and software agents to find needles in electronic haystacks as well as to present and store the results in a more personalized--and personable--form.
3) OBJECT OPERATING SYSTEMS
So far, the revolution in OOP (object-oriented programming) has been mostly fought in languages and developer tools. The next step is to build an entire OS from objects. There already is such a system, NextStep, Steve Jobs' critically acclaimed box-office flop. Taligent plans to release its entrant sometime in 1996. Even NextStep, long lauded for its elegance but used by only a small fraction of developers, might impact the Windows/PC world when a Windows version comes out next year. Object-based operating environments will facilitate other important technologies, such a
s modular applications, agents, and distributed computing.
4) MULTIMEDIA DATABASES
No, we're not talking about the desktop file managers that help you pull together 5-second videos for a presentation. This new category is about the huge databases from Oracle, Sybase, and others that will power the coming convergence of computers and the entertainment business. Multimedia databases will be needed to manage the huge libraries of films delivered to homes via cable, as well as to process viewer input as consumers order from on-line catalogs or vote on the endings of soap operas.
5) AGENTS AND AVATARS
The promise of software agents is that they will begin to handle people problems, not just under-the-hood technical chores. General Magic's Magic Cap PDA (personal digital assistant) language is a good example, while the E-mail sorters and sifters that were first introduced years ago are becoming de rigueur in E-mail and other collaboration software. When all
the world becomes a database, we'll need agents to keep from drowning.
Tomorrow's Top Five Software Categories
