ss the Web will cooperate as a single application. Poor-quality "crapplets" that crash or perform poorly might discourage early adopters and drive them back to well-known commercial software packages.
The reputation of some Web-based software has withered as a result of the practice where every bug-fix release includes a host of new features--and often new bugs to go with them. With no stable version available, users feel like perpetual beta testers.
Bryce Wilcox, a Java consultant employed by DigiCash (Palo Alto, CA), a firm specializing in secure electronic commerce, says that although dependability and quality control will be issues for Java applets, these problems aren't new to the software industry. "This would be a wise time for developers to start paying more attention to maintenance issues," he observes. "We need to trade off development speed for dependability and design software that upgrades gracefully."
Developers still debate whethe
r the evolution of the Web as a distribution channel will have a profound impact on software marketing. Following today's shareware model, an individual could develop and market an applet independently, eliminating the distributor. But adequate exposure remains the greatest hurdle.
"The single most attractive feature of a Web site is traffic," says George Paolini, a spokesman for Sun Microsystems. "People want to go to a shopping mall. So, a distributor that sets up and advertises a Web site with a great variety of applets will generate sales that an individual with a personal Web page couln't." However, the marketing model for single applets that don't work closely with other applications (e.g., a game as opposed to a spelling checker) might evolve differently and resemble an "impulse rack" at a supermarket checkout line rather than a shopping mall.
"The latency between viewing a description of an applet on a Web site and downloading that applet is measured in seconds," says Wilcox. "And the el
imination of the overhead of packaging and retail distribution will make the cost of an applet minute."
In addition to resolving the distribution question, developers must solve an equally important problem: getting paid. The traditional practice of charging a one-time fee is a poor fit for the download-on-demand world of Java applets. Alternate paradigms include paying per use and paying per elapsed time. Both require a system for billing micropayments.
Felix Kramer, marketing director at Clickshare (Williamstown, MA), another company that's exploring the field of electronic commerce, sees this as one of the functions of the Web distributor. "People are going to deposit their ap-plets at payware sites on the Web," he explains. "Other people will collect the fees for them and send them a monthly check."
Kramer envisions a billing model for applet use based on data transferred, not on time used. Each download of an applet might cost a few cents or dollars but would allow the use of an appl
et during an entire session. The alternative, in which the applet might be equipped with a built-in expiration timer, interrupting your application to demand another nickel, is not as likely to occur. "The Internet is a stateless system," Kramer says. "Time as a method of measurement will go away."
The mechanics of development and distribution of Java applets aside, some observers believe that in the long run, there may not be enough financial incentive to lure many developers to go out on their own. If Java becomes a popular language in the business community, you'll begin to see more ads in the classified section of your local newspaper searching for Java programmers who can develop intranet applications.
It's unrealistic to expect that a significant percentage of Java developers will choose to make their living marketing applets independently, or even through distributors, according to Alex Newman, executive director of Sun User Group/Java-SIG. "There are a lot of great C++ coders out there,
but they don't walk around selling code," he says. "They go around looking for jobs. Knowing how to program in Java will be a résumé item."
How Java Can Pay the Rent
