Lower Prices, Modularity, Lead Notebook Trends

Jon Pepper

What's next for PC notebooks? The answer is either not very much or a lot, depending on how far out you look. In the near term, notebooks will see mostly minor changes: larger hard drives (2 GB and more), faster processors (150 and 166 MHz), and more memory (8 to 16 MB standard). However, you will see a big reduction in the time it takes for features to show up on notebooks after appearing on desktops.

A key trend is the emergence of the true desktop-replacement notebook at far lower price points than before. Complete multimedia notebooks with CD-ROM, sound, and other high-end features are becoming the standard notebook system, with prices around $2500 and up depending on configuration. "It is getting harder and harder to come up with innovative, gee-whiz technology," says Bruce Ste phen, who is a market analyst with International Data (Framingham, MA). "The market really revolves now around the continuous loading of the latest leading-edge technology into these products."

Typical of this trend is a new notebook from NEC. NEC's ((800) 388-8888)Versa 2400 line brings high-end features to the value-priced market. Available as either a 100- or 133-MHz Pentium, the system will include a minimum of 1 GB of hard disk storage, an 11.3-inch double super-twisted nematic (DSTN) display, and a snap-in 6X CD-ROM drive with a large software bundle. Prices for the Versa line will start at $2299 for a 100-MHz system without a CD-ROM drive ($400 more buys the CD-ROM drive).

While the Versa 2400 represents the state of the market now, Compaq's new Armada 4100 ((800) 888-5858), slated to ship this month, portends a new trend in modulatrity that will let you tailor your system to your needs. The 1.5-inch-thick Ar mada 4100, which starts at about 5 pounds and is available with an 11.8-inch active matrix display, converts to a standard notebook with an integrated floppy drive or extra battery pack, and, when you attach the mobile CD unit, to a full multimedia system. The Armada 4100 is the first of several modular systems you can expect to see in the near future. "You will definitely see modularity and interesting design options," says Al Kirts, a spokesman for Gateway 2000. "There will be a whole new generation of notebooks in 1997 in what will be a design-driven market." Look for other major vendors like IBM, Toshiba, and NEC to offer systems like this.

You can also expect that 12.1-inch screens will become the standard, while some vendors will release notebooks with 13.4- and 13.8-inch LCDs. These larger-screen formats won't be mainstream soon, however. New 12.1-inch panels are just coming into full production, and 13-inch panels are too expensive and will require a new wider design.